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COGENCIS POLL

Bks to save otherwise dull Apr-Jun for Nifty 200 cos

 

Cogencis, Thursday, Jul 11

By Chiranjivi Chakraborty

MUMBAI – Banks are expected to make the performance of Nifty 200 companies, in terms of profits for the June quarter, appear respectable, as most other companies are likely to see sharp deterioration in earnings.

Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities expects banks to report sales growth of 12.4% on year and net profit growth of 152% on year in the June quarter.

Currently, 19 Banks Are Part Of The Nifty 200 Index, With A Combined Weight Of 18% In The Index.

Currently, 19 banks are part of the Nifty 200 index, with a combined weight of 18% in the index.

The banking industry is going through better times as their provisions for non-performing assets are falling, and as a lower numbers of loans is slipping into the bad asset category. Further, they have benefited from recovery of some assets through insolvency cases at the National Company Law Tribunal, as well as from a recent correction in government bond yields, which boosts treasury income.

This is despite the concerns over their exposure to conglomerates like Anil Ambani's Reliance Group, Indiabulls Group and Dewan Housing Finance Corp Ltd.

The net profit of 176 companies part of Nifty 200 index is expected to rise 4% on year on sales growth of 5%, an average of estimates by 22 brokerages polled by Cogencis showed.

Earnings estimates were not available for 24 companies part of the Nifty 200 index.

If banks are excluded, the earnings performance of Nifty 200 companies is expected to be the weakest in recent memory as the economy grapples with sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity and consumer demand.

It's the confluence of headwinds--weak global demand, fading impact of rupee depreciation, a crisis among non-bank lenders, and scale-back of government spending--which is deepening the slowdown, Edelweiss Securities said in a note.

Excluding banks, the net profit of 157 companies is expected to fall 9% in the June quarter, while their sales are likely to rise 5%.

The tepid performance in the June quarter will imply that most brokerages will slash their earnings estimate for Nifty 200 companies, putting the optimistic expectations for 2019-20 (Apr-Mar) under risk.

The weakness will be led by automobile companies, which are going through one of their worst slowdowns in recent times, because of falling volumes and shrinking margins due to heavy discounts.

The impact of the slowdown on consumer demand and the crisis among non-bank lenders has been felt the most in this sector, as its inventories have built up, leading to production cuts.

The overall demand sentiment remains lacklustre despite high competition on the pricing front, weighed down by a general reluctance in discretionary spending and tight liquidity in the system, brokerage firm ICICIdirect.com said.

Another sector that is likely to see weak growth in the June quarter is oil and gas. Lack of inventory gains in the quarter, given that global crude oil prices fell 4% during the period, and weak gross refining margins are expected to be a drag on the earnings of these companies.

Contrary to popular perception, consumer staple companies are expected to report sales growth numbers similar to Jan-Mar as demand conditions that were hit in March-May are likely to have improved in June.

The net profit of fast-moving consumer goods companies is likely to have grown 10% in Apr-Jun on net sales growth of 10%, helped largely by a pick-up in spending in urban India. The commentary of these managements on the monsoon and the demand trends in rural India will be watched closely for future expectations on their earnings, said analysts.

Besides banking, the agri-chemical and capital goods sectors are expected to emerge as the winners in the June quarter, said analysts.

Agri-chemical companies are likely to report single-digit growth in net sales but will see strong growth in profitability because of the price hikes taken in recent months.

The single-digit growth in sales for agri-chemical companies is likely because of delay in the onset of monsoon and a near 10% fall in rabi crop sowing till June. Analysts, therefore, expect companies such as UPL and PI Industries, which have larger export business, to benefit from a pick-up in global sowing.

Meanwhile, capital goods companies are expected to report steady growth in the quarter, likely helped by execution of their base orders, given the weakness in private greenfield projects.

Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities expects some support to margins of capital goods companies from operating leverage benefits and lower commodity prices.

Following are the Apr-Jun consensus earnings estimates of companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 200 index. These estimates are based on reports compiled by Cogencis from 22 brokerage houses.

 

Company   Sales       PAT  Sales    PAT  Sales    PAT    EBITDA  Result
 ------Average------------(Y-o-Y)----------(Q-o-Q)-----Mln rupees    date
 -----Mln rupees-------------------% Change--------------  
AUTO        
Amara Raja Batteries16,9511,322(5)178112,627Jul 20
Apollo Tyres +43,4671,4882(41)4774,416      --
Ashok Leyland58,5315,002(6)35(33)(23)5,163      --
Bajaj Auto76,43610,9623(2)6(16)11,041Jul 26
Balkrishna Industries13,5961,899(0)(18)133,308      --
Bharat Forge17,6062,71519166(9)4,870      --
Bosch28,8243,863(10)(10)5(6)5,441Aug 13
Escorts13,905922(8)(24)(15)(24)1,449      --
Eicher Motors +23,7815,049(6)(12)(3)(7)6,498      --
Endurance Technologies +19,9801,312755(12)3,052Aug 08
Exide Industries27,1172,130(2)1413,926Aug 02
Hero MotoCorp81,8617,719(7)(15)4611,384Jul 30
M&M127,0929,245(6)(24)(9)916,658      --
Maruti Suzuki189,39113,495(13)(32)(9)(25)19,945      --
Motherson Sumi +163,1123,72912(16)(4)(9)12,012Aug 12
MRF39,3272,5332(3)(3)(14)5,525      --
Tata Motors +572,972(14,282)(13)     N.A.(33)     N.A.42,629Jul 25
TVS Motor Co44,9281,4138(4)263,251Jul 22
Varroc Engineering +29,2848820(11)(7)(41)2,692      --
Total1,588,16061,397(7)(11)(18)(36)  
         
AVIATION        
Interglobe Aviation 91,9637,193412,488172220,741      --
Total91,9637,193412,4881722  
         
BANK        
AU Small Finance Bank*3,9921,183395430      N.A.Jul 25
AXIS Bank*59,89818,53616164523      N.A.Jul 30
Bandhan Bank*13,9246,5403436110      N.A.Jul 19
Bank of Baroda*59,0749,885358717     N.A.      N.A.      --
Bank Of India*40,0113,89419309(1)55      N.A.      --
Canara Bank*33,1362,033(15)(28)(5)     N.A.      N.A.      --
Federal Bank*11,3833,59216374(6)      N.A.Jul 16
HDFC Bank*132,87256,62823232(4)      N.A.Jul 20
ICICI Bank*75,16819,15123     N.A.(1)98      N.A.Jul 27
IDBI Bank*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
IDFC First Bank*12,025841145(54)8     N.A.      N.A.      --
Indian Bank*18,0782,0210(3)3     N.A.      N.A.      --
IndusInd Bank*27,04310,57627221194      N.A.Jul 12
Kotak Mahindra*33,16015,328285099      N.A.Jul 22
Punjab National Bank*43,281(5,562)(8)     N.A.3     N.A.      N.A.      --
RBL Bank*7,7142,627403846      N.A.Jul 19
SBI*232,38643,4967     N.A.1419      N.A.      --
Union Bank Of India*26,393(3,986)1     N.A.1     N.A.      N.A.      --
Yes Bank*25,174(412)13     N.A.0     N.A.      N.A.Jul 17
Total854,711186,3691426431,694  
         
CEMENT        
ACC +38,9043,9003191136,322Jul 18
Ambuja Cements 29,9204,256(1)(15)2(0)6,240Jul 25
Grasim Industries51,5554,6528(28)(4)38,255      --
Ramco Cements13,4941,8271446(12)103,393Aug 07
Shree Cement31,5474,169349(4)309,381Aug 09
UltraTech Cement98,23511,4371791(6)1224,217      --
Total263,65430,241922(4)11  
         
CHEMICAL        
Coromandel International +24,121711(5)(21)(9)(36)1,913Jul 22
Godrej Industries +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Graphite India12,8603,107(28)(64)(7)(27)4,390      --
Tata Chemicals +28,2712,4162172(41)5,039      --
PI Industries7,1351,0021823(11)(19)1,446      --
UPL +64,9704,96757(3)(24)14113,054      --
Total137,35712,20316(30)(15)(4)  
         
CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING       
Dilip Buildcon22,8691,424(6)(44)(11)(35)3,976      --
Engineers India6,492973131263946      --
GMR Infra +15,933(3,338)(3)     N.A.(15)     N.A.3,045      --
NBCC India +24,5618403315(20)(39)931      --
Reliance Infra +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Total69,855(101)7     N.A.(14)     N.A.  
         
CONSUMER GOODS        
Future Consumer +10,658(34)27     N.A.3     N.A.275      --
Godrej Agrovet +16,57278612(2)24(31)1,440      --
Total27,23075317114(38)  
         
DIVERSIFIED        
Quess Corp +24,1411,00623845321,336Jul 12
Total24,1411,0062384532  
         
ELECTRICAL        
ABB India18,9661,090(29)74(6)1,528Jul 26
Bharat Electronics22,6532,205923(40)(67)3,856      --
Cummins India14,0051,833807302,131      --
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals13,3852,96611184111091,901      --
HEG11,0482,589(30)(66)(18)(51)3,680      --
Havells India29,3002,39013146163,574      --
Siemens34,2212,6251528(1)(6)3,725      --
V-Guard Industries7,1344581233(4)(23)638      --
Total150,71216,1560(10)(8)(24)  
         
ENGINEERING - CAPITAL GOODS       
BHEL62,3301,707810(37)(75)3,037      --
L&T +314,15913,9651115(30)(59)33,513Jul 23
Voltas +24,3834,81514162192452,637      --
Total400,87220,4871132(29)(52)  
         
FINANCE        
Aditya Birla Capital      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Bajaj Finance*34,41212,228344711024,525Jul 25
Bajaj Finserv*+111,47010,822(14)312729      N.A.Jul 25
Bajaj Holdings & Investment*+      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.Jul 26
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance *9,5803,43017207186,225 
Dewan Housing Fin*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.Jul 13
Edelweiss Financial Services *+      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
General Insurance Corporation of India#      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Gruh Finance*1,7721,1031(4)4(15)1,624Jul 25
HDFC Asset Management Co*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.Jul 16
HDFC Life Insurance Co#65,1594,1642910(37)14      N.A.Jul 23
HDFC*30,72932,6331049(3)1441,314Aug 02
HUDCO*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co#      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.Jul 19
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co#62,9273,6161628(37)38      N.A.Jul 24
Indiabulls Housing*+      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Indiabulls Ventures      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
L&T Finance Holdings *+16,0425,6799524      N.A.Jul 19
LIC Housing Finance*11,9576,5191915(0)(6)11,309      --
M&M Financial Svcs*13,4403,82725423(35)      N.A.Jul 23
Manappuram Finance *+7,4272,43720235(5)4,062      --
Max Financial Services*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Muthoot Finance*12,7755,337139148,470      --
New India Assurance Co      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
PNB Housing Finance*5,8052,6553413(5)(28)5,943Jul 30
Power Finance Corp*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
REC*      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Reliance Capital +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
SBI Life Insurance Co#62,7373,878329(45)(15)      N.A.Jul 23
Shriram Transport*19,5906,7508183(10)15,254Jul 24
Total465,822105,0761029(18)5  
         
FMCG        
Bombay Burmah Trading Corp      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Britannia Industries +27,8282,87810111(3)4,338Aug 09
Colgate Palmolive11,0391,7367(8)(4)(12)2,949Jul 18
Dabur India +22,0863,411644(8)4,095Jul 19
GSK Consumer12,1342,2871014(6)(20)2,614Aug 01
Godrej Consumer +24,9693,0502(25)3(67)4,625Aug 01
Hindustan Unilever 102,84217,374101451324,784Jul 23
ITC119,62831,74113131(9)46,336      --
Jubilant Foodworks9,507884111810201,636Jul 24
Marico +21,8093,07782036(23)4,205Aug 01
Procter Gamble Hygiene      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.Aug 21
Tata Global Beverages +19,0881,57263585862,582      --
United Breweries20,9942,15613(3)292173,964      --
United Spirits21,5261,239752(4)(2)2,596Jul 22
Total413,45171,40510105(8)  
         
HEALTHCARE        
Apollo Hospitals23,01085320426112,766Aug 13
Total23,0108532042611  
         
HOTELS        
Indian Hotels Co +10,4431277(17)(16)(89)1,277      --
Total10,4431277(17)(16)(89)  
         
IT        
HCL Tech +161,65823,66016(3)1(7)34,961      --
Hexaware Tech +13,1051,46115(5)451,944Aug 08
Info Edge India3,12489320427351,005Aug 13
Infosys +218,53637,0381431(9)49,857Jul 12
Larsen & Toubro Infotech +24,9713,55616(2)0(6)4,465Jul 18
L&T Technology Services +13,6791,92219(3)202,473Jul 19
Mindtree +18,5631,7281391(13)2,625Jul 17
Mphasis +21,0032,6321524(1)3,471Jul 25
Oracle Financial +13,3593,969(1)(1)1022      N.A.      --
TCS +386,28077,9791362(4)99,416Jul 09
Tech Mahindra +87,4509,80069(2)(13)16,342Jul 30
Wipro +148,26323,384610(1)(6)30,330Jul 17
Total1,109,989188,0211241(6)  
         
JEWELLERY        
Rajesh Exports +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Total      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.  
         
LOGISTICS        
Container Corp17,5192,9361216(4)(17)4,206      --
Total17,5192,9361216(4)(17)  
         
MEDIA        
Dish TV India +15,19862(8)(78)9     N.A.4,789      --
Sun TV Network10,7883,854(4)(6)21366,402      --
Zee Entertainment +19,6153,8101117(3)316,148      --
Total45,6017,726016     N.A.  
         
METAL        
Hindalco Industries107,7111,4702(64)(13)(38)9,003      --
Hindustan Zinc49,85117,775(6)(7)(7)(12)24,207      --
Jindal Steel & Power +94,804(2,101)(1)     N.A.(5)     N.A.17,313      --
JSW Steel +199,46710,895(0)(54)(9)(28)37,719Jul 26
National Aluminium23,7722,326(20)(66)(14)(0)3,933      --
Steel Authority152,845(1,616)(4)     N.A.(17)     N.A.58,606      --
Tata Steel +372,47513,976(2)(28)(10)(43)55,474      --
Vedanta +214,65314,666(3)(4)(7)(44)55,266      --
Total1,215,57657,392(2)(40)(10)(22)  
         
MINING        
NMDC32,60313,1983535(11)(9)17,896      --
Total32,60313,1983535(11)(9)  
         
OIL & GAS        
BPCL736,22912,5373(45)(0)(60)24,006      --
Castrol India10,6732,024523993,070      --
GAIL 190,07812,57110(0)11221,327      --
GSPL4,7601,863222910213,866      --
Hindustan Petroleum648,6829,812(4)(43)(4)(67)20,137      --
Indian Oil Corporation1,307,15530,0921(56)4(51)69,476      --
Indraprastha Gas15,7362,21422262(2)3,477      --
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals114,054(1,480)(16)     N.A.(25)     N.A.355Jul 30
Oil India33,9537,2030210     N.A.14,133      --
ONGC271,38356,067(0)(9)139135,193      --
Petronet LNG91,5645,909(0)19349,051      --
Reliance Ind1,135,23989,761252365162,494      --
Total4,559,507228,5715(22)7(15)  
         
PAINT        
Asian Paints +48,5265,696112(3)209,286Jul 24
Berger Paints India +16,5361,46911912312,530Aug 05
Pidilite Industries +19,7642,91382221244,322Aug 06
Total84,82610,078108423  
         
PHARMA        
Alkem Laboratories +18,7242,00213471202,893      --
Ajanta Pharma +5,6571,09511410231,584      --
Aurobindo Pharma +52,3615,96525311210,205      --
Biocon +15,7402,10740763(1)4,218Jul 25
Cadila Healthcare +32,3364,06317(12)(11)(12)7,481      --
Cipla +44,6974,8721685339,130      --
Divi's Laboratories12,5313,3712627(0)164,681      --
Dr. Reddy's Lab +40,4865,60011188238,945Jul 29
Glenmark Pharma +24,1581,79713(23)(4)113,762      --
Jubilant Life Sciences +23,8251,98816(2)1     N.A.4,327      --
Lupin +44,7743,0791952468,226      --
Natco Pharma +5,2681,541(2)(15)16281,963      --
Pfizer5,9461,273163911161,756      --
Piramal Enterprises +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Sun Pharma +80,79210,174134156017,064      --
Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Syngene International5,2379762948(2)(2)1,558Jul 24
Torrent Pharma +20,1491,994102211     N.A.5,170      --
Total432,68051,8981713437  
         
PORT        
Adani Ports and SEZ +29,25310,7292155(5)(17)17,804      --
Total29,25310,7292155(5)(17)  
         
POWER & ENERGY        
Adani Power +68,942(4,435)80     N.A.3     N.A.13,751      --
Coal India +246,68443,691(29)15(8)(27)58,895      --
JSW Energy +23,2842,658(1)16216,7678,505      --
Mahanagar Gas7,6811,4612414692,315      --
NHPC23,2778,177911196614,407      --
NTPC 234,75528,1293911(35)62,098      --
Power Grid93,03625,66714151(16)79,851      --
Reliance Power +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Tata Power19,5592,1891(81)(10)3066,761      --
Tata Power +74,5972,7472(84)337717,354      --
Torrent Power +      N.A.      N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.     N.A.      N.A.      --
Total791,815110,283(5)(6)2(26)  
         
REALTY        
DLF +20,3193,49935102(19)(20)6,999      --
Oberoi Realty +7,1132,378(20)(23)24533,423      --
Prestige Estates +15,39081379(33)(22)(42)3,945      --
Total42,8216,6893111(15)(9)  
         
RETAIL        
Aditya Birla Fashion20,44915471747(92)1,211Aug 06
Avenue Supermarts58,5272,912281616445,044Jul 13
Bata India8,77596210172991,559      --
Future Retail52,1771,8821523(3)(7)2,738      --
Page Industries8,7231,2347(1)44651,885      --
Titan Co51,5634,217212111436,016      --
Total200,21411,3611918107  
         
TELECOM        
Bharti Airtel +209,799(8,515)4     N.A.2     N.A.66,944      --
Bharti Infratel +35,7515,913111(7)113(3)14,123      --
Vodafone Idea +116,981(30,370)99     N.A.(0)     N.A.19,256      --
Sterlite Technologies +14,8461,4046916(17)(15)2,860Jul 18
Total377,377(31,568)32     N.A.5     N.A.  
         
TEXTILE        
SRF +19,1511,438117(6)(25)3,380      --
Total19,1511,438117(6)(25)  
         
Grand Total13,480,3121,181,91554(3)6  

EARNINGS DECLARED SO FAR

Company name    Sales   Cogencis     PAT  Cogencis     EPS  Result 
    estimates  estimates  (in Rs)    Date
TCS +381,720386,28081,31077,97921.67Jul 09

Note: 
+ Consolidated Figure 
* Net interest Income 
# Net Premium Income 
Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year 
Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter
N.A.: Not Available 
Rs: Rupees 
  
Estimates from: 

Antique Stock Broking Ltd, Axis Capital, BOB Capital Markets Ltd, Centrum Broking Ltd, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd, Edelweiss Securities Ltd, Elara Capital, Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, ICICI direct.com Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Institutional Equities, KR Choksey Research, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd, Reliance Securities, SBICAP Securities and Sharekhan Lt. End

Edited by Maheswaran Parameswaran

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