Higher acreage of pulses may fail to reduce reliance on imports
Informist, Friday, Jul 12, 2024
By Taniva Singha Roy
MUMBAI – A significant rise in the acreage of pulses over the last year might not lead to a proportionate rise in production, according to market participants. Import of pulses is inevitable unless domestic production continues to rise steadily for the next few years, they say.
The area under pulses in the 2024-25 kharif season has risen to 3.7 mln ha so far from 2.4 mln ha a year ago. While this is up 55% on year due to a slightly early onset of the monsoon, it is still 49.3% lower than in 2022, according to data released by the farm ministry on Jul 8.
"Higher prices of pulses also prompted farmers to grow more tur and moong during this season," said Rahul Chauhan, director of IGrain India. Last year, sowing area was down mainly due to the El-Nino weather phenomenon and late sowing, which also contributed to a rise in prices.
While the acreage has risen, consumption remains way higher than production. Moreover, it is too early to comment on production, which could be lower than last year if the weather is unfavourable, said G. Chandrashekhar, commodity market expert and policy commentator. "I don't see kharif pulses production reaching its target," he said.
The government's aim of self-sufficiency in pulses is a distant dream, he says, as climate change will worsen the situation. "The land is already scarce and the cultivable area has also been shrinking due to weather."
In its third estimate released on Jan 4, the government pegged production of urad in 2023-24 (Jul-Jun) at 2.3 mln tn, down from 2.63 mln tn a year ago. However, tur production has been pegged slightly higher at 3.4 mln tn from 3.3 mln tn a year ago. While India is the largest producer of pulses, accounting for around 25% of global production, the yield of pulses in India is quite low at 781 kg per ha.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast southwest monsoon rainfall this year at 106% of the long period average, with rainfall likely to be higher in the second half of the season. While this could support production, a Vashi-based trader said it was too early to talk about a rise in output as the kharif sowing season was still underway. Even if production is higher this year, imports would still be required, he said.
PULSES INFLATION
Broadly, prices of pulses are up about 17% on year due to lower production. On Thursday, the price of tur was 15,582.82 rupees per 100 kg, against 12,146.04 rupees a year ago, while urad prices were at 11,653.78 rupees per 100 kg, against 10,277.98 rupees a year ago, according to data from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs. Consecutive years of falling output and lower arrivals have led to a rise in prices, experts said.
Prices are likely to remain at the current levels or even increase this month, said Chandrashekhar, adding, "One can expect a dip in prices when the domestic harvest starts between Dec-Jan." When imports come in from Africa in August and from Myanmar in January and February, prices could cool down slightly, he said.
Stockists could become active in liquidating their stocks with every rise in prices, especially with cheaper supplies from Africa expected in the near future, India Pulses and Grains Association said in a report. Analysts and traders will also monitor African tur price offers, increased freight charges, and the pace of supply, it said.
MSP HIKE
Although the government has hiked the minimum support price of pulses, just as for other crops, they are still below market prices. This has failed to encourage farmers to grow more pulses.
The minimum support prices for tur, moong, and urad have been increased 7.9%, 1.4% and 6.5%, respectively, for marketing season 2024-25 (Oct-Sep). But market prices alone determine the sentiment of farmers and which crop they are eager to grow, said Rahul Chauhan.
To reduce India's dependence on pulses imports, breakthrough seed technology and robust policies of export and import are needed. A mere increase of the minimum support price will not help much in increasing production, said Chandrashekhar. Efforts should be made to shift a section of rice growers to pulses, he said. End
