Informist, Tuesday, Apr 16, 2024
--Skymet president: Monsoon start seen slow, but likely to catch up
--CONTEXT: Skymet President GP Sharma's comments in interview
--Skymet president: See better spatial distribution of rains this yr
--Skymet president: El Nino still going strong, may recede in 4-6 wks
--Skymet president: La Nina to set in soon after El Nino recedes
--Skymet president: La Nina conditions to stay active through 2024
--Skymet president:Southern water reservoir levels a matter of concern
--Skymet president: No heatwaves expected over north India this week
--Skymet president: Need to watch out for heatwaves in May
--Skymet president: See more heatwave days in east, west in May
By Sayantan Sarkar and Afra Abubacker
NEW DELHI - Southwest monsoon rains, seen crucial for the Indian economy, are likely to kick off the season on a weak note due to the persisting El Nino phenomenon, but will catch up during the four months ending September riding the favourable La Nina, says private weather forecaster Skymet's President G.P. Sharma. In what bodes to be good news for the agrarian sector, the spatial distribution of rainfall over India is likely to be better than last year, says Sharma.
"The start of the monsoon as such may not be with a bang... It could be slower to start with, and then catch up slowly as we go through the season," Sharma tells Informist in an interview.
Last year, India received below-normal rainfall at 94.4% of the long-period average during the season due to the formation of the El Nino weather pattern, which is associated with hotter and drier conditions over the subcontinent. The country's rain pattern was erratic last year, taking off track the sowing of crops and depleting the water reservoir levels.
Last week, Skymet projected the southwest monsoon rainfall to be normal at 102% of the long period average this year, with an error margin of plus or minus 5%. On Monday, the country's apex weather forecaster India Meteorological Department said it expects monsoon rainfall to be above normal at 106% of the long period average during Jun-Sep.
"At present, the El Nino conditions, which started last year, are still going strong, and may fade away in another four to six weeks before La Nina conditions set in," Sharma said. As opposed to El Nino, the La Nina typically brings cooler temperatures and higher rainfall for the country. Sharma sees this year's southwest monsoon rainfall to be substantially better than last year due to the advent of the La Nina weather pattern that is likely to recede only from Jan-Feb.
On the weather forecast for the short term, Sharma says north India is not likely to experience any prolonged heatwave conditions for the rest of April. "We don't project heatwave conditions anywhere this week. Moreover, north India will have another spell of rain and thunderstorms (in the coming days)," he says.
According to Sharma, the eastern and western parts of the country are likely to experience rising heatwave conditions in May, which will coincide with India's General Elections. In central India, he sees heatwave conditions in parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh next month.
Sharma flagged concern over the country's shrinking water reservoir levels, especially in south India, and described the situation as "worrisome". The catchment areas--from where rain water flows into a river, lake or reservoir--in the south have been getting poor rain that has exacerbated the situation, he says. "The reservoirs in south India are down to just 18% of their live storage capacity at present, which is worrisome," he says.
Water reservoir levels in south India have continued to shrink, as the region experiences a severe scarcity in several parts. The water level in the key reservoirs of south India was only 18% of the total live capacity as of Friday, compared with 32% a year ago. Of India's six reservoirs that have gone dry, five are in the south. For the whole country, the water level in the key reservoirs was 33% of the total capacity, down from 39% a year ago.
The following are the edited excerpts from the interview:
Q. What is the outlook for the summer season this year? Which regions are most likely to experience heatwave conditions?
A. We haven't perceived any heatwave conditions in any of the parts of northern India so far in April – be it parts of Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, or even parts of further east such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. There were some pockets in south India that have experienced heatwave conditions, such as parts of Andhra Pradesh and interiors of south peninsula, where temperatures have been in excess of 40 degrees Celsius. The conditions remain so at present. But this is quite normal at this time of the year. All these areas are likely to experience 1–2 degrees Celsius above the normal temperature.
We don't project heatwave conditions any where this week. Moreover, north India will have another spell of rain and thunderstorms. Though heatwave conditions are not going to be very prolonged in April, we have to watch out for May. We expect the heatwave conditions to build up in May, and in any case, May-Jun is the hottest period during the summer. We can expect heatwave conditions over different parts of the country in May. These are likely to increase in some pockets of eastern and western India. Also, heatwave conditions are likely over the central parts covering parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.
Q. Skymet has said the El Nino is swiftly transitioning into La Nina. Is it normal for El Nino to transition into La Nina within just a year?
A. Both La Nina and El Nino cycles normally run on average for 9-12 months. And they normally come up around the pre-monsoon season, just at the fag end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The weather patterns run through the monsoon and then once again start receding according to the winter cycle. But for both the events, there are some exceptions. These two weather systems can last longer, up to two years, or even more. In the last episode, we had triple dip La Nina lasting for almost about 34 months. What we are currently experiencing is "drought El Nino", which came after a "Super El Nino" cycle.
The El Nino weather pattern started last year, and it is still going strong at the moment. It may fade away in another four to six weeks or so before the La Nina condition sets in. And La Nina will remain through the monsoon season to the fall of the year. I think it will slow down or decay some time only next year during Jan-Feb. El Nino conditions resulted in below normal rainfall last year, and this year we have La Nina conditions coming up. So, possibly better rainfall can be expected this year.
Q. According to Skymet, El Nino conditions are still persisting, therefore the monsoon start could be weak. Does that mean that monsoon onset will be delayed?
A. We never said anything about the onset. The onset forecast is always made around the middle of May or so. In view of El Nino conditions spilling over to the month of May, and neutral conditions possibly coming up a little later in the season, the start of the monsoon as such may not be with a bang. It may be a bit slow.
It is very difficult to comment about the onset date. But monsoon onset may not be what we normally desire. But, then it will definitely catch up. Also, the monsoon pace is never the same all through these four months. It keeps varying. It could be slower to start with in the beginning, and then catch up slowly as we go through the season.
Q. The withdrawal of the monsoon over India has been late in the last few years. So do you see the need for the cropping pattern of India to change accordingly?
A. I can't talk about the crops. In the case of withdrawal, it has been delayed in the last few years, and obviously, the crops will have an extended wet spell, particularly over northern parts, where rains will continue for longer. As far as withdrawal is concerned, there is not much change in the northeastern and central parts. But yes, largely we have seen a change in the northern part of the country.
Q. Since we are seeing a pattern of a delay in the withdrawal of monsoon, is it time for the southwest monsoon period to be redefined from Jun-Sep to Jun-Oct?
A. Even with the delay in withdrawal, southwest monsoon rainfall is confined to only the Jun-Sep period. Any spillover on either side does not count. At times, the southwest monsoon overlaps with the northeast monsoon in central and northeastern parts. So having monsoon rains till mid-October is a very normal feature. Statistically, any amount of precipitation before or after the Jun-Sep period is counted in that particular month as such, but they are not part of the southwest monsoon season.
Q. What is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the monsoon season?
A. Southwest monsoon has oceanic parameters which control the current as such. The weather pattern is referred to as Indian Nino as well, which happens in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a variation of the temperature of the eastern and the western sides. On the western side, there is the Arabian Sea, which is closer to us, while on the eastern side, the Pacific region is closer to the country. When the temperatures on the western side or the south equatorial region over the Arabian Sea are higher than those of the eastern region, it is referred to as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. When it is the other way round, that condition is known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. A positive dipole is always considered good for the southwest monsoon. This means the temperatures in the Indian Ocean and southern parts of the Arabian Sea closer to the equatorial bed should be higher than on the eastern side. And this year, we expect a positive IOD that should help the monsoon rainfall.
Q. As the La Nina has been forecast to pick up pace in the latter half of the monsoon, do you see a better spatial distribution of rainfall over the country this year?
A. It should be.
Q. Currently, the water reservoir levels in south India are a matter of concern. What kind of an impact will peak summer have on these dams?
A. In certain parts of the country, the pre-monsoon activity has been very poor this season. There is no rainfall. You talk about any subdivision, be it Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, there has been hardly any rainfall activity. These regions are experiencing a water crisis, including Bengaluru. Basically, reservoirs get water if there is rainfall in the catchment areas. However, catchment areas in southern parts of the country are not getting any rain.
The reservoirs in south India are down to just 18% of their live storage capacity at present, which is worrisome. But, nothing much can be done about this. Some rainfall activity is likely over southern states during mid-week, including Bengaluru, which might also get some showers.
Q. Skymet has projected deficient rainfall in east India this year. Will this negatively impact reservoir levels in this region, particularly Bihar, where the level is already very low?
A. In Bihar, the water situation is not that bad. Even last year, when the monsoons were very poor across the country in the month of August, Bihar got good rain even in that month. So reservoir levels are not that worrisome as far as eastern parts of the country are concerned. But, it depends more on how the monsoon activity picks up in the eastern and central parts. Regions such as Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in central India have received decent showers since March. There is hardly any heatwave that has been recorded in these regions. So, the situation is much better in the eastern parts of the country.
Eastern India has also received some rainfall in April so far, and it is going to get better. So, I rule out any possibility that eastern parts will face scarcity of water as far as reservoir levels are concerned.
Q. As most of the kharif sowing is done in Jun-Jul, do you think a weaker start to the monsoon could have a negative impact?
A. When the monsoon is weak, it invariably affects the sowing of crops. The only difference is that some of the areas which are solely dependent on southwest monsoon rains, those pockets suffer the most. The monsoon reaches northern parts of the country much later, and sometimes it is even the first week of July when rains hit northern India. These parts are not dependent on rainfall because of irrigation facilities.
But, yes, there are some parts of the country, particularly the Maharashtra region, which is a drought-prone area. They are largely dependent on monsoon rainfall and if rains are delayed, it takes a toll on the cropping pattern. Sometimes, if the monsoon is excessively delayed, farmers may have to re-sow their crops because everything is done in anticipation of the arrival of the monsoon.
Q. The topic of climate change is perhaps the most important right now. In your opinion, what are the steps India must take to counter the impact of climate change?
A. The last five months have been the hottest on record, starting with December. This is what describes climate change. Climate change is going on, and it is taking a toll on the glaciers in Antarctica. So, to tackle climate change, constructive steps are required. But, if these steps are taken today, it will take at least a decade or so for results to show up.
As far as India is concerned, we have done much better in this field. We have set targets for solar energy and renewables, which will reduce the carbon footprint. I think India has done well so far in that regard, and hopefully, we will meet our targets.
Q. Does Skymet have a long-range forecast for the next two-three years regarding monsoon rains in India?
A. As of now, we only give projections for the southwest monsoon season from year to year. Having a three-year forecast is not possible, particularly because of the changing scenarios nowadays and changing climatic conditions. It is chaotic, mostly because of weather patterns such as El Nino, La Nina and others. As far as Skymet is concerned, we keep ourselves limited to projections of the southwest monsoon season, and that's it. End
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2024. All rights reserved.